The Influence of Situation Efficiency of Goal Shooting on Results of Handball Matches of the First Phase of the World U19 Championship 2019

Naim Čeleš, Tamara Karalić, Tolga Sinoforoglu, Natalija Kurtović

To determine the influence of the situational efficiency of goal shooting on the prediction of the results of the first phase of the competition at the U19 World Handball Championship in 2019, 60 matches played by national teams that qualified for this championship were analyzed. Fourteen variables of situational shooting efficiency from seven positions commonly used during the attacking phase of handball were observed. The criterion was a binary-defined handball match result.

For all analyzed variables, basic descriptive indicators were calculated. At this stage of the competition, teams attempted an average of 45.66 shots from the seven analyzed positions per match, of which 27.53% were successful and 18.14% unsuccessful. The overall shooting success rate was 60.09%.

The predictive impact of the set of variables was evaluated using Logistic Regression. The results showed that the applied predictor variables explained between 57.3% and 76.4% of the common variance, confirming a high predictive value of the selected variables. The calculated B coefficients and the individual contribution of each predictor indicated that six variables had a statistically significant contribution to predicting match outcomes.

The highest partial contribution to predicting match results was shown by the variable evaluating successful fast-break shots. A high individual predictive value was also demonstrated by the variable evaluating successful shots from back positions (9-meter shots).

The results suggest that this phase of the competition was dominated by national teams playing fast handball, characterized by a large number of fast breaks and rapid transitions between phases of play.